... okay, maybe the title is a bit extreme. But two of my three favorite "analog years" (1955-56 and 1964-65, but not 1998-99) featured a cool-to-cold period in mid to late November. Moreover, the pattern we've been in through October occasionally leads to such a cold shot down the line.
Add to those little hints that the GFS ensembles (and the latest 12z operational, though that's not really fair since it's basically meaningless) are starting to like the idea of an Aleutian blocking ridge and a downstream trough over the Pac NW in the 11- to 15-day range, and there are at least some signs that the northern tier and Pac NW could see a cold shot this November. Now, often when the GFS ensembles begin advertising a significant pattern change, they are way too quick to do so. Usually it seems that an "actual" pattern change occurs a week or two after the models initially showed it. That's why I say the best chance would be mid-late rather than early-mid November.
Yay for the Mallow blog!
ReplyDeleteAny chance of this "arctic blast" squeezing a peak into Texas, or should I just shut up and be happy with my blowtorch and nothing happening for the rest of the season?
Generally, if Texas wants some fun, it is much better to see the Pac NW grinning with glee rather than the NE. This is where you and I can relate ^_^. It normally makes its way down here eventually, unless that just won't be the case this year.
-- Flexo from Texo
Flexo!
ReplyDeleteYes, you're right. It seems that often, when an "Arctic blast" hits Texas, it sets its sights on the Pac NW first.
In this case I wouldn't be surprised to see something in Texas, either. The trough is expected to dip into the northwest, then set itself up over the center of the nation for a while.
It may not be an extremely-cold-OMG-Arctic-blast or anything, but it will definitely be chilly!