Yay for Chaos Theory!

Saturday, November 20, 2010

Snow on the way





Of the five models I regularly look at, every single one of them now gives us here in Portland at least a little accumulating snow.

The GFS is the only solution that's further inland with the trough now, and even it gives us enough moisture to squeeze out up to an inch of accumulating snow. The UKMET, ECMWF, GGEM (Canadian), and NAM models are all further west with the trough, inducing a stronger surface low and much more moisture. The NAM, at face value, gives the Portland area at least 2-5" of snow, and the other models generally look like the NAM.

Afterwards it gets cold, with 850mb temperatures down to the -12 to -14C range. With snow on the ground, I wouldn't be surprised to see even the Portland Airport get down to the lower 20s, or even (*gasp*) the upper 10s.

Enjoy the snow and cold!

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