Winter Forecast -- Updated

October can be a very helpful month in determining what the winter might do. I looked at this October's 500hPa pattern and qualitatively came up with the following October analogs:
1948, 1948, 1950, 1953, 1955, 1956, 1957, 1958, 1962, 1962, 1963, 1963, 1964, 1967, 1977, 1979, 1980, 1989, 2005, 2007

Years that are listed twice were stronger analogs. Based on this list and the previous list of analogs I had already compiled, here is the updated "winter analog list" (for comparison, the old list is listed below)
1948; 1950; 1950; 1950; 1962; 1962; 1962; 1963; 1966; 1966; 1979; 2001
 (1950; 1950; 1950; 1960; 1962; 1962; 1966; 1966; 1966; 1979; 2001; 2001; 2009)

Again, the more a year is listed, the more it's weighted as an analog. Based on this "new" analog list, changes aren't actually that major... which gives me more confidence in the forecast. That being said, the November forecast seems to not jive with the two-week forecasts for the first half of November... so maybe the second half of November will overpower the first half? Anyway, here are the maps.

NOVEMBER

DECEMBER

JANUARY

FEBRUARY

MARCH