1948, 1948, 1950, 1953, 1955, 1956, 1957, 1958, 1962, 1962, 1963, 1963, 1964, 1967, 1977, 1979, 1980, 1989, 2005, 2007
Years that are listed twice were stronger analogs. Based on this list and the previous list of analogs I had already compiled, here is the updated "winter analog list" (for comparison, the old list is listed below)
1948; 1950; 1950; 1950; 1962; 1962; 1962; 1963; 1966; 1966; 1979; 2001
(1950; 1950; 1950; 1960; 1962; 1962; 1966; 1966; 1966; 1979; 2001; 2001; 2009)
Again, the more a year is listed, the more it's weighted as an analog. Based on this "new" analog list, changes aren't actually that major... which gives me more confidence in the forecast. That being said, the November forecast seems to not jive with the two-week forecasts for the first half of November... so maybe the second half of November will overpower the first half? Anyway, here are the maps.
NOVEMBER
DECEMBER
JANUARY
FEBRUARY
MARCH
Well something is obviously very wrong with my analog list. November is turning out to be almost the exact inverse of what I expected. I'll probably have to do a completely-revised analog list once November is done.
ReplyDeleteAfter a terrible verification in November, I took a look at possible November analogs and came up with the following list:
ReplyDelete1948; 1978; 1990; 1993; 1994; 1994; 2003; 2003; 2009
Combining these analogs with the October analogs, and taking ENSO into account, yields the following analog list:
1948; 1948; 1962; 2003
This analog list generally has a cold-west warm-east look throughout the winter.