Yay for Chaos Theory!

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Typhoon Chaba to become potential Pac NW windstorm threat



It's still very early, and there are lots of different scenarios that could potentially play out in the end... but the GFS has recently been flirting with the idea that a chunk of energy from former typhoon Chaba will cross the Pacific, arriving just south of the 40N, 140W benchmark by day 7 (on the heels of another moderately strong extratropical cyclone further north). Developing/bombing storms south of this benchmark are much more likely to make landfall on the Washington or south Vancouver Island coast, bringing the potential for a windstorm to the big cities of the Pac NW.

As of now, dynamics look favorable for a strengthening system and minor/moderate windstorm for Seattle/Portland. However, 850mb baroclinicity and jet strength, while indicative of a strengthening storm, are, at face value, not enough for a true major bomb a la Dec 1995 or Oct 1962. But it has certainly piqued my interest, and I'll be tracking this one closely until the models drop it.

1 comment:

  1. Ya, the idea of a typhoon-induced windstorm seems to be all but gone from the models now. Alas!

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